Panel (click on it to enlarge ) published World Climate Report substantially horizontal shows the trend of temperatures in the United States from 1895 to 2009. Below the graphic context of the IPCC temperature of the last millennium reconstructed. .
WARM AS A WORLD THAT MAYBE IT IS COOLED
Gianfranco Bangon, reformism, November 25, 2009
Fuga di notizie. Finiscono in rete migliaia di mail trafugate da un server dell'Università dell'East Anglia. A leggerle sembrerebbe che i dati sul global warming siano stati “addomesticati” o quantomeno che siano stati ignorati («dieci anni con temperature relativamente stabili») quelli che non lo confermavano. Un migliaio di mail vengono trafugate da un server dell'Università della East Anglia e finiscono in rete. È la corrispondenza fra alcuni ricercatori che hanno contribuito a provare l'aumento delle temperature degli ultimi decenni e il loro lavoro è alla base dei Rapporti dell'Agenzia delle Nazioni Unite per i mutamenti climatici.
Nelle mail rese pubbliche c'è di tutto: espedienti to adjust the data to confirm the heating, proposals to undermine the credibility of their opponents and hide data more uncomfortable.
The chart you see on this page [see below, click to enlarge] is perhaps the most famous of all time and has earned the name "hockey stick" (or hockey stick). Represents the temperature of the last millennium and is the most cited evidence in support of the thesis on the contribution of human activity to global warming. The reconstruction was published in 1998 and the authors are three climate scientists Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes. The chart assumes a political significance in 2001 when it becomes absolutely l’architrave del terzo Rapporto dell’Agenzia delle Nazioni Unite per i mutamenti climatici (Ipcc), oltre a figurare in centinaia di documenti istituzionali e politici che sostengono la necessità di tagliare drasticamente le emissioni di gas serra.
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Va precisato che l’andamento delle temperature indicate nel grafico è una ricostruzione che utilizza varie fonti di dati: misuriamo le temperature a partiredal 1850, per cui per ricostruire quelle precedenti si è dovuto ricorrere ai cosiddetti proxy, ovvero a temperature ricavate dagli anelli degli alberi o a microrganismi contenuti nei sedimenti lacustri e marini. Ma al di là dei tecnicismi, resta il fatto che la ricostruzione Mann and colleagues shows an almost flat trend in temperature between the year 1000 and the beginning of last century, after rising relentlessly with a very steep curve. It is therefore a clear indication that human activities are responsible, through emissions of greenhouse gases, this precipitous rise. From a strictly political point of view is the scientific supporting documents justifying the Kyoto Protocol and any other mitigation program will follow.
The controversy over the soundness of this reconstruction began in 2003 when a Canadian mining consultant, Stephen McIntyre, the challenge openly arguing that it is vitiated by artifacts due to miscalculations and unreliable data. In years after it set off an intense debate with dozens of published works for or against, destined to remain in contention of the experts. They will consider the case of many academic institutions including the National Research Council and the National Academy of Sciences USA, as well as a subcommittee of the Senate and disciplinary associations. The original group of 1998 recruits in the meantime, other researchers, is dubbed "The Team" and becomes the soul "technical" group of experts that the IPCC carries out the scientific part of the report prepared by the UN every four years. In short, we speak of climate on the crest of the wave that publish journals a big impact factor represents a major and have also in influencing national policies on climate mitigation.
Now, however, the credibility of this group is severely tested by the publication of a thousand mail that a hacker had stolen from the server of the University of East Anglia in Britain. Although the most likely hypothesis is that it has been a researcher of the group, and not a hacker to steal the documents. The material "pirated" was placed on a Russian server that generally the people of the network connects to download free cracked programs.
More than a thousand mail are now available and some leave a suspect conspiracy to undermine the credibility of the journals that published the work of their opponents. At first, these emails have been defined apocryphal, but since they could become a boomerang called into question many researchers have preferred to admit that they are true.
has been known for several years, for example, that the temperature at this time is not growing, so a researcher writes in an email: "Yes, it is not much higher than 1998 and this worries me ... there is the possibility to have a long period before a decade with relatively stable temperatures ... maybe I can cut the corner before the final points of my speech. " In 2008
the usual McIntyre sending a request using the Freedom of Information Act, a measure that guarantees free access to government data, whether institutional or do not relate to national security. The news spread and soon there is an intense exchange of letters asking you to cancel the correspondence on the subject.
But this is less worrying than the mail - and sonodecine - are those which suggest ways to adjust the data do not converge with the interpretation of the Team.
This buck comes at a delicate enough: on the one hand it is almost at the Copenhagen meeting where discussion of a Kyoto II, which already has a lot 'of trouble, the other groups Scientific are working on the next IPCC report where you can stack the deck in the past.
Another node will be the conduct of scientific journals that have published the work "domesticated" and will now receive more than a few complaints.
The scandal is certainly a lot at stake because it raises many scientific questions on honesty of the most influential group in the industry, but as these researchers have worked with public funding there is also the risk that you open a federal investigation.
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Scientists "deniers" against "catastrophic"
'CLIMATE DATA FALSIFICATIi "
HACKER DISCOVERS THE TRICKS OF SCIENTISTS
Paul Valentino, Corriere della Sera, November 22, 2009
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-tical skeptical of climate-warming but are in complete euphoria. Convinced that he had grasped with his hands in the cookie jar you the prophetic and the shamans of doom of global warming. In the middle of negotiations not to derail the December summit in Co-penhagen, the scandal of it-you touched revealed yesterday by the New York Times makes explodes-ing the dispute public about the dan-ni real or alleged caused by greenhouse gases to the sustainability cli- ; tions of the planet. They shout to scam the deniers, re-spond with equal vee-dementia theorists of human responsibility, citing the huge amount of data in so-ro-Stegne of the thesis. Some dub-bio on the quality of research re-mane. Above all now that hundreds of e-mail, stolen by pirates telematics-tical from the compu-ter of the Univer-sity of East An-glia, UK, reveals that the author-no-li researchers and scientists from the British and Americans often "forced" and in some cases altered the data in their possession, fighting for re-arguments of skeptical there, agreeing and true pro-Prie strategies communi- to convince the public. Not lacking in substantial correspondence refer-ences derisory and insulting to those who put lost-national bio-dub in the view of the global war-ming, one of the authors of the mail calls "idiots." "This is not a smoking gun is a mushroom cloud-co," he told the daily New York-Patrick Micha els, a climate expert who has long accused the opposite of overheating is not pro-duce evidence and data-winning a support of the thesis catastrophic.
THE DISCOVERY - The discovery of the incursion took place last Tuesday, after the hackers had penetrated the server an-other site, a blog run by NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt, where they were comin-ciated with downloading files of e-mail exchanges between them and scholars of East Anglia. Two days later, the first mail-comin ciat have to be published in The Air Vent, a website dedicated to the arguments of skeptics. The police opened un'indagi-ment even though the first doubts on l'autenticità-mail were dissolved by the same Anglo-American scientists, who have confirmed to be the authors. "The fact is that at this mo-ment we can not give an explanation for the fail-ing and heating is a fiction che non possiamo permetterci», scriveva poco più di un mese fa Kevin Tren­berth, del National Center for Atmospheric Research di Boulder, in Colorado, in una discussione sulle recenti va­riazioni atipiche della tempe­ratura. Ancora, nel 1999, Phil Jones, ricercatore della Clima­te Unit a East Anglia, ammet­teva in un messaggio al colle­ga Michael Mann, della Penn­sylvania State University, di aver usato un «trick», un ac­corgimento per «nascondere il declino» registrato in alcu­ne serie di temperature dal 1981 in poi.
GIUSTIFICAZIONI - Mann ha cercato di sminuire il significato del termine trick, spiegando that is a word often used by scientists to refer to "a good way to solve a problem-ended" and does not indicate a manipulation. In this case, were questioning two data sets, one showing the effects of changes in temperature-ra on the rims of the trunks of trees, the other regarded the re-development of atmospheric temperature over the last 100 years. In the case of the circles of the trees, the temperature increase is not demonstrated from 1960 onwards, while the thermometers have to continuously to do so until today. Mann has admitted that the data of the trees were not more im-bent to find the must-variations, but that "this has never been a secret." According to Trenberth, e-mail actually shows "the substantial integrity of our research." But Patri-ck Michaels, the scandal-the shores attitude talista fundamental theorists of global warming, "ready to violate the rules, but to discredit and cause serious damage to the re-amputated those who just want an honest scientific debate co.
A "bomb" reported by many newspapers around the world, but the inside pages, so that the general public has lost. On blog of young Italian economists in the U.S. are some grafici. Ed e cco i siti Climate Monitor , BBC News e Il Foglio , e i blog degli scienziati "scettici" Watts e Beauregard . Per un quadro complessivo di un problema così dibattuto si veda anche la voce di Wikipedia .
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